ARIBUF
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
82% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 82% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 5.6 points stronger.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to Bills in our ratings.
- Simulation: Bills win 8,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 1,840 of 10,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Cardinals passing game (23rd in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 5 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -10.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.2 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · BUF n/a | ARI 18% · BUF 82% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +442 · BUF -442 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 31, ARI 21.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 5 and BUF by 28.
Side by side
| ARI | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-1 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | ARI 28 @ BUF 34 | BUF | BUF -6.5 |
| 2020-11-15 | 2020 Wk 10 | BUF 30 @ ARI 32 | ARI | ARI -3 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | ARI 18 @ BUF 33 | BUF | ARI -5 |
| 2012-10-14 | 2012 Wk 6 | BUF 19 @ ARI 16 | BUF | ARI -5 |
| 2008-10-05 | 2008 Wk 5 | BUF 17 @ ARI 41 | ARI | ARI -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away