BUFARI
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 5.7 points stronger.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to Bills in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bills +1.0, Cardinals -12.0.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Travel: Bills cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,440 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Cardinals passing game (23rd in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -7.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.2 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · ARI n/a | BUF 76% · ARI 24% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -310 · ARI +310 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 23, BUF 30.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 25 and ARI by 8.
Side by side
| BUF | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | ARI 28 @ BUF 34 | BUF | BUF -6.5 |
| 2020-11-15 | 2020 Wk 10 | BUF 30 @ ARI 32 | ARI | ARI -3 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | ARI 18 @ BUF 33 | BUF | ARI -5 |
| 2012-10-14 | 2012 Wk 6 | BUF 19 @ ARI 16 | BUF | ARI -5 |
| 2008-10-05 | 2008 Wk 5 | BUF 17 @ ARI 41 | ARI | ARI -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away