ARICAR
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 2.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Panthers win 6,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Panthers in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Cardinals 29th (2.3).
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,190 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Panthers 24th (7.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Panthers lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -5.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.2 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · CAR n/a | ARI 32% · CAR 68% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +214 · CAR -214 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 27, ARI 21.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 10 and CAR by 23.
Side by side
| ARI | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | CAR 22 @ ARI 27 | ARI | ARI -7 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | ARI 30 @ CAR 36 | CAR | ARI -5.5 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | ARI 26 @ CAR 16 | ARI | CAR -1 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | CAR 34 @ ARI 10 | CAR | ARI -7 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | ARI 21 @ CAR 31 | CAR | ARI -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away