CARARI
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 2.4 points stronger.
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Panthers in our ratings.
- Simulation: Panthers win 5,870 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Cardinals 29th (2.3).
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 4,130 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Panthers cross 2 time zones for this one.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.2 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · ARI n/a | CAR 59% · ARI 41% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR -142 · ARI +142 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 23, CAR 26.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 20 and ARI by 14.
Side by side
| CAR | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | CAR 22 @ ARI 27 | ARI | ARI -7 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | ARI 30 @ CAR 36 | CAR | ARI -5.5 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | ARI 26 @ CAR 16 | ARI | CAR -1 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | CAR 34 @ ARI 10 | CAR | ARI -7 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | ARI 21 @ CAR 31 | CAR | ARI -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away