ARICIN
Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
81% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 81% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 4.4 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.7 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Cardinals -12.0.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 1,860 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 5 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -10.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.4 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · CIN n/a | ARI 19% · CIN 81% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +437 · CIN -437 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 30, ARI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 5 and CIN by 28.
Side by side
| ARI | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | ARI 14 @ CIN 37 | CIN | CIN -7 |
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | CIN 34 @ ARI 20 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2019-10-06 | 2019 Wk 5 | ARI 26 @ CIN 23 | ARI | CIN -3 |
| 2015-11-22 | 2015 Wk 11 | CIN 31 @ ARI 34 | ARI | ARI -4 |
| 2011-12-24 | 2011 Wk 16 | ARI 16 @ CIN 23 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away