CINARI
Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 4.5 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.8 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Cardinals -12.0.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Bengals cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,530 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -7.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.4 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · ARI n/a | CIN 75% · ARI 25% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -295 · ARI +295 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 21, CIN 28.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 25 and ARI by 8.
Side by side
| CIN | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | ARI 14 @ CIN 37 | CIN | CIN -7 |
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | CIN 34 @ ARI 20 | CIN | CIN -3 |
| 2019-10-06 | 2019 Wk 5 | ARI 26 @ CIN 23 | ARI | CIN -3 |
| 2015-11-22 | 2015 Wk 11 | CIN 31 @ ARI 34 | ARI | ARI -4 |
| 2011-12-24 | 2011 Wk 16 | ARI 16 @ CIN 23 | CIN | CIN -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away