ARICLE
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Browns
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Browns can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Browns in our ratings.
- Simulation: Browns win 6,070 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Browns passing game (21st in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Browns may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,930 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Browns lose by 13 or more.
- History: Cardinals won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Browns rank 32nd in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (10.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.8 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · CLE n/a | ARI 39% · CLE 61% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +154 · CLE -154 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 24, ARI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 13 and CLE by 20.
Side by side
| ARI | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | ARI 0 @ CLE 27 | CLE | CLE -13 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | ARI 37 @ CLE 14 | ARI | CLE -3 |
| 2019-12-15 | 2019 Wk 15 | CLE 24 @ ARI 38 | ARI | CLE -3 |
| 2015-11-01 | 2015 Wk 8 | ARI 34 @ CLE 20 | ARI | ARI -7 |
| 2011-12-18 | 2011 Wk 15 | CLE 17 @ ARI 20 | ARI | ARI -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away