CLEARI
Cleveland Browns @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Browns
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Browns can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Browns in our ratings.
- Browns passing game (21st in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Point differential per game: Browns rank 21st (-1.9), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Simulation: Browns win 5,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Browns may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 4,770 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Browns cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Browns lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -0.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.8 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · ARI n/a | CLE 52% · ARI 48% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE -110 · ARI +110 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 21, CLE 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 17 and ARI by 16.
Side by side
| CLE | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | ARI 0 @ CLE 27 | CLE | CLE -13 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | ARI 37 @ CLE 14 | ARI | CLE -3 |
| 2019-12-15 | 2019 Wk 15 | CLE 24 @ ARI 38 | ARI | CLE -3 |
| 2015-11-01 | 2015 Wk 8 | ARI 34 @ CLE 20 | ARI | ARI -7 |
| 2011-12-18 | 2011 Wk 15 | CLE 17 @ ARI 20 | ARI | ARI -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away