ARIDEN
Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
79% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 4.2 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Simulation: Broncos win 7,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Broncos rank 16th (+0.4), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,120 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (2.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -9.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.6 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · DEN n/a | ARI 21% · DEN 79% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +371 · DEN -371 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 27, ARI 17.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 6 and DEN by 27.
Side by side
| ARI | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | DEN 30 @ ARI 16 | DEN | DEN -4.5 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | ARI 15 @ DEN 24 | DEN | DEN -1.5 |
| 2018-10-18 | 2018 Wk 7 | DEN 45 @ ARI 10 | DEN | DEN -1 |
| 2014-10-05 | 2014 Wk 5 | ARI 20 @ DEN 41 | DEN | DEN -8 |
| 2010-12-12 | 2010 Wk 14 | DEN 13 @ ARI 43 | ARI | DEN -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away