DENARI
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 4.3 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Simulation: Broncos win 7,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Broncos rank 16th (+0.4), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,910 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.6 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · ARI n/a | DEN 71% · ARI 29% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -244 · ARI +244 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 20, DEN 26.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 24 and ARI by 10.
Side by side
| DEN | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | DEN 30 @ ARI 16 | DEN | DEN -4.5 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | ARI 15 @ DEN 24 | DEN | DEN -1.5 |
| 2018-10-18 | 2018 Wk 7 | DEN 45 @ ARI 10 | DEN | DEN -1 |
| 2014-10-05 | 2014 Wk 5 | ARI 20 @ DEN 41 | DEN | DEN -8 |
| 2010-12-12 | 2010 Wk 14 | DEN 13 @ ARI 43 | ARI | DEN -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away