ARIDET
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 4.7 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Lions in our ratings.
- Simulation: Lions win 7,850 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,150 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Cardinals passing game (23rd in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -9.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.7 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · DET n/a | ARI 22% · DET 78% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +364 · DET -364 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 31, ARI 21.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 6 and DET by 27.
Side by side
| ARI | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | DET 45 @ ARI 21 | DET | DET -5.5 |
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | DET 20 @ ARI 13 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2021-12-19 | 2021 Wk 15 | ARI 12 @ DET 30 | DET | ARI -13 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | DET 26 @ ARI 23 | DET | ARI -4.5 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | DET 27 @ ARI 27 | Tie | DET -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away