DETARI
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 4.7 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to Lions in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,920 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: Lions cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Cardinals passing game (23rd in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.7 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · ARI n/a | DET 71% · ARI 29% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -242 · ARI +242 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 24, DET 30.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 23 and ARI by 10.
Side by side
| DET | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | DET 45 @ ARI 21 | DET | DET -5.5 |
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | DET 20 @ ARI 13 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2021-12-19 | 2021 Wk 15 | ARI 12 @ DET 30 | DET | ARI -13 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | DET 26 @ ARI 23 | DET | ARI -4.5 |
| 2019-09-08 | 2019 Wk 1 | DET 27 @ ARI 27 | Tie | DET -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away