ARIGB
Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 3.3 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Simulation: Packers win 7,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,360 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Packers rank 32nd in penalty yards per game (73.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -8.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.1 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · GB n/a | ARI 24% · GB 76% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +324 · GB -324 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 27, ARI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 7 and GB by 25.
Side by side
| ARI | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-3 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | GB 27 @ ARI 23 | GB | GB -7 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | ARI 13 @ GB 34 | GB | GB -5.5 |
| 2021-10-28 | 2021 Wk 8 | GB 24 @ ARI 21 | GB | ARI -6.5 |
| 2018-12-02 | 2018 Wk 13 | ARI 20 @ GB 17 | ARI | GB -13.5 |
| 2016-01-16 | 2015 Divisional | GB 20 @ ARI 26 | ARI | ARI -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away