GBARI
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 3.4 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Simulation: Packers win 6,870 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,130 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -5.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.1 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · ARI n/a | GB 69% · ARI 31% |
| Fair moneyline | GB -220 · ARI +220 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 21, GB 27.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 22 and ARI by 11.
Side by side
| GB | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | GB 27 @ ARI 23 | GB | GB -7 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | ARI 13 @ GB 34 | GB | GB -5.5 |
| 2021-10-28 | 2021 Wk 8 | GB 24 @ ARI 21 | GB | ARI -6.5 |
| 2018-12-02 | 2018 Wk 13 | ARI 20 @ GB 17 | ARI | GB -13.5 |
| 2016-01-16 | 2015 Divisional | GB 20 @ ARI 26 | ARI | ARI -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away