ARIHOU
Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 4.3 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Cardinals -12.0.
- Simulation: Texans win 7,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Texans in our ratings.
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,260 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 7 or more.
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Weak spot: Texans rank 31st in explosive plays allowed per game (4.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.8 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · HOU n/a | ARI 23% · HOU 77% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +343 · HOU -343 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 27, ARI 19.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 7 and HOU by 27.
Side by side
| ARI | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | ARI 20 @ HOU 40 | HOU | HOU -10.5 |
| 2023-11-19 | 2023 Wk 11 | ARI 16 @ HOU 21 | HOU | HOU -5.5 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | HOU 5 @ ARI 31 | ARI | ARI -20.5 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | ARI 21 @ HOU 31 | HOU | HOU -2.5 |
| 2013-11-10 | 2013 Wk 10 | HOU 24 @ ARI 27 | ARI | ARI -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away