HOUARI
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 4.4 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Texans in our ratings.
- Simulation: Texans win 6,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,030 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 11 or more.
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -5.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.8 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · ARI n/a | HOU 70% · ARI 30% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -230 · ARI +230 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 20, HOU 26.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 23 and ARI by 11.
Side by side
| HOU | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | ARI 20 @ HOU 40 | HOU | HOU -10.5 |
| 2023-11-19 | 2023 Wk 11 | ARI 16 @ HOU 21 | HOU | HOU -5.5 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | HOU 5 @ ARI 31 | ARI | ARI -20.5 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | ARI 21 @ HOU 31 | HOU | HOU -2.5 |
| 2013-11-10 | 2013 Wk 10 | HOU 24 @ ARI 27 | ARI | ARI -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away