ARIJAX
Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
82% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 82% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 4.6 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 8,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 1,830 of 10,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 5 or more.
- History: Cardinals won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Cardinals rank 17th (6.5%), Jaguars 24th (4.5%).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -11 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.7 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · JAX n/a | ARI 18% · JAX 82% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +447 · JAX -447 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 30, ARI 17.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 5 and JAX by 28.
Side by side
| ARI | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | JAX 27 @ ARI 24 | JAX | JAX -2.5 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | ARI 31 @ JAX 19 | ARI | ARI -8 |
| 2017-11-26 | 2017 Wk 12 | JAX 24 @ ARI 27 | ARI | JAX -6.5 |
| 2013-11-17 | 2013 Wk 11 | ARI 27 @ JAX 14 | ARI | ARI -9.5 |
| 2009-09-20 | 2009 Wk 2 | ARI 31 @ JAX 17 | ARI | JAX -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away