JAXARI
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 4.7 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jaguars +1.3, Cardinals -12.0.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Jaguars cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,420 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 8 or more.
- History: Cardinals won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.7 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · ARI n/a | JAX 76% · ARI 24% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -313 · ARI +313 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 20, JAX 27.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 25 and ARI by 8.
Side by side
| JAX | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | JAX 27 @ ARI 24 | JAX | JAX -2.5 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | ARI 31 @ JAX 19 | ARI | ARI -8 |
| 2017-11-26 | 2017 Wk 12 | JAX 24 @ ARI 27 | ARI | JAX -6.5 |
| 2013-11-17 | 2013 Wk 11 | ARI 27 @ JAX 14 | ARI | ARI -9.5 |
| 2009-09-20 | 2009 Wk 2 | ARI 31 @ JAX 17 | ARI | JAX -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away