ARILV
Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LVLas Vegas Raiders
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Raiders can win
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Simulation: Raiders win 6,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Raiders in our ratings.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Raiders rank 13th (3.7), Cardinals 29th (2.3).
Disadvantages Why the Raiders may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,870 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Raiders lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Raiders rank 32nd in running game, EPA per carry (-0.27).
- Weak spot: Raiders rank 29th in points allowed per game (28.1).
- Weak spot: Raiders rank 27th in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (+0.16).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LV -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.8 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · LV n/a | ARI 39% · LV 61% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +159 · LV -159 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 27, ARI 23.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 13 and LV by 21.
Side by side
| ARI | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | ARI 29 @ LV 23 | ARI | LV -5.5 |
| 2018-11-18 | 2018 Wk 11 | LV 23 @ ARI 21 | LV | ARI -4.5 |
| 2014-10-19 | 2014 Wk 7 | ARI 24 @ LV 13 | ARI | ARI -3.5 |
| 2010-09-26 | 2010 Wk 3 | LV 23 @ ARI 24 | ARI | ARI -5.5 |
| 2006-10-22 | 2006 Wk 7 | ARI 9 @ LV 22 | LV | ARI -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away