LVARI
Las Vegas Raiders @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LVLas Vegas Raiders
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Raiders can win
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Raiders in our ratings.
- Simulation: Raiders win 5,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Raiders rank 13th (3.7), Cardinals 29th (2.3).
- Point differential per game: Raiders rank 23rd (-2.0), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
Disadvantages Why the Raiders may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 4,740 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Raiders lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: Raiders rank 32nd in running game, EPA per carry (-0.27).
- Weak spot: Raiders rank 29th in points allowed per game (28.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LV -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.8 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · ARI n/a | LV 53% · ARI 47% |
| Fair moneyline | LV -111 · ARI +111 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 24, LV 24.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 17 and ARI by 16.
Side by side
| LV | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | ARI 29 @ LV 23 | ARI | LV -5.5 |
| 2018-11-18 | 2018 Wk 11 | LV 23 @ ARI 21 | LV | ARI -4.5 |
| 2014-10-19 | 2014 Wk 7 | ARI 24 @ LV 13 | ARI | ARI -3.5 |
| 2010-09-26 | 2010 Wk 3 | LV 23 @ ARI 24 | ARI | ARI -5.5 |
| 2006-10-22 | 2006 Wk 7 | ARI 9 @ LV 22 | LV | ARI -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away