ARIMIN
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
80% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 80% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.8 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 3.6 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Cardinals -12.0.
- Simulation: Vikings win 7,980 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,020 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -9.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · MIN n/a | ARI 20% · MIN 80% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +396 · MIN -396 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 27, ARI 17.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 6 and MIN by 27.
Side by side
| ARI | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-0 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | ARI 22 @ MIN 23 | MIN | MIN -3.5 |
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | ARI 26 @ MIN 34 | MIN | MIN -4 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | MIN 33 @ ARI 34 | ARI | ARI -4 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | ARI 17 @ MIN 27 | MIN | MIN -10 |
| 2016-11-20 | 2016 Wk 11 | ARI 24 @ MIN 30 | MIN | MIN -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away