MINARI
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 3.7 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Cardinals -12.0.
- Simulation: Vikings win 7,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,740 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -6.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · ARI n/a | MIN 73% · ARI 27% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -265 · ARI +265 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 20, MIN 26.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 24 and ARI by 9.
Side by side
| MIN | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | ARI 22 @ MIN 23 | MIN | MIN -3.5 |
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | ARI 26 @ MIN 34 | MIN | MIN -4 |
| 2021-09-19 | 2021 Wk 2 | MIN 33 @ ARI 34 | ARI | ARI -4 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | ARI 17 @ MIN 27 | MIN | MIN -10 |
| 2016-11-20 | 2016 Wk 11 | ARI 24 @ MIN 30 | MIN | MIN -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away