ARINO
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NONew Orleans Saints
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Saints can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Saints -3.0, Cardinals -12.0.
- Simulation: Saints win 6,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Saints in our ratings.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Saints may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,790 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Saints lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Saints rank 30th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.03).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NO -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.9 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · NO n/a | ARI 38% · NO 62% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +164 · NO -164 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 26, ARI 23.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 13 and NO by 21.
Side by side
| ARI | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | ARI 20 @ NO 13 | ARI | ARI -6 |
| 2022-10-20 | 2022 Wk 7 | NO 34 @ ARI 42 | ARI | ARI -2.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | ARI 9 @ NO 31 | NO | NO -12.5 |
| 2016-12-18 | 2016 Wk 15 | NO 48 @ ARI 41 | NO | ARI -3 |
| 2015-09-13 | 2015 Wk 1 | NO 19 @ ARI 31 | ARI | ARI -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away