NOARI
New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NONew Orleans Saints
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Saints can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Saints -3.0, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Saints in our ratings.
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Simulation: Saints win 5,320 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Saints about 1.1 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Saints may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 4,680 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Saints lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NO -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.9 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · ARI n/a | NO 53% · ARI 47% |
| Fair moneyline | NO -114 · ARI +114 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 24, NO 24.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 17 and ARI by 16.
Side by side
| NO | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | ARI 20 @ NO 13 | ARI | ARI -6 |
| 2022-10-20 | 2022 Wk 7 | NO 34 @ ARI 42 | ARI | ARI -2.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | ARI 9 @ NO 31 | NO | NO -12.5 |
| 2016-12-18 | 2016 Wk 15 | NO 48 @ ARI 41 | NO | ARI -3 |
| 2015-09-13 | 2015 Wk 1 | NO 19 @ ARI 31 | ARI | ARI -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away