ARIPIT
Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Cardinals -12.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 2.9 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to Steelers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Simulation: Steelers win 7,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,590 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 8 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 26th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.10).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · PIT n/a | ARI 26% · PIT 74% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +286 · PIT -286 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 27, ARI 19.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 8 and PIT by 25.
Side by side
| ARI | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | ARI 24 @ PIT 10 | ARI | PIT -6 |
| 2019-12-08 | 2019 Wk 14 | PIT 23 @ ARI 17 | PIT | PIT -2.5 |
| 2015-10-18 | 2015 Wk 6 | ARI 13 @ PIT 25 | PIT | ARI -5.5 |
| 2011-10-23 | 2011 Wk 7 | PIT 32 @ ARI 20 | PIT | PIT -4 |
| 2009-02-01 | 2008 Super Bowl | PIT 27 @ ARI 23 | PIT | PIT -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away