PITARI
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 3.0 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Steelers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Simulation: Steelers win 6,690 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,310 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Steelers cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 11 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · ARI n/a | PIT 67% · ARI 33% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT -202 · ARI +202 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 20, PIT 24.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 21 and ARI by 11.
Side by side
| PIT | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | ARI 24 @ PIT 10 | ARI | PIT -6 |
| 2019-12-08 | 2019 Wk 14 | PIT 23 @ ARI 17 | PIT | PIT -2.5 |
| 2015-10-18 | 2015 Wk 6 | ARI 13 @ PIT 25 | PIT | ARI -5.5 |
| 2011-10-23 | 2011 Wk 7 | PIT 32 @ ARI 20 | PIT | PIT -4 |
| 2009-02-01 | 2008 Super Bowl | PIT 27 @ ARI 23 | PIT | PIT -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away