ARISEA
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
85% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 85% pick loses about 1 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 5.6 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 8,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Cardinals -12.0.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 1,480 of 10,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 1 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: Seahawks rank 28th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -12.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.4 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · SEA n/a | ARI 15% · SEA 85% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +576 · SEA -576 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 29, ARI 17.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 4 and SEA by 30.
Side by side
| ARI | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | SEA 31 @ ARI 7 | SEA | SEA -3.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | ARI 22 @ SEA 44 | SEA | SEA -7 |
| 2025-09-25 | 2025 Wk 4 | SEA 23 @ ARI 20 | SEA | SEA -1.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | SEA 30 @ ARI 18 | SEA | ARI -3 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | ARI 6 @ SEA 16 | SEA | ARI -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away