SEAARI
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
79% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 5.7 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Cardinals -12.0.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,090 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 7 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -9 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.4 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · ARI n/a | SEA 79% · ARI 21% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -378 · ARI +378 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 17, SEA 27.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 27 and ARI by 7.
Side by side
| SEA | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | SEA 31 @ ARI 7 | SEA | SEA -3.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | ARI 22 @ SEA 44 | SEA | SEA -7 |
| 2025-09-25 | 2025 Wk 4 | SEA 23 @ ARI 20 | SEA | SEA -1.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | SEA 30 @ ARI 18 | SEA | ARI -3 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | ARI 6 @ SEA 16 | SEA | ARI -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away