ARISF
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
82% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 82% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 4.4 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.8 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Simulation: 49ers win 8,180 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 1,820 of 10,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: 49ers rank 30th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -11 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.5 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · SF n/a | ARI 18% · SF 82% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +450 · SF -450 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 30, ARI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 4 and SF by 28.
Side by side
| ARI | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-1 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | ARI 30 @ SF 36 | SF | SF -7.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | SF 41 @ ARI 22 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | ARI 15 @ SF 16 | SF | SF -1.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | SF 24 @ ARI 47 | ARI | ARI -4.5 |
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | ARI 24 @ SF 23 | ARI | SF -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away