SFARI
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 4.5 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Simulation: 49ers win 7,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 2,350 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 7 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.5 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · ARI n/a | SF 76% · ARI 24% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -325 · ARI +325 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 21, SF 29.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 25 and ARI by 7.
Side by side
| SF | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | ARI 30 @ SF 36 | SF | SF -7.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | SF 41 @ ARI 22 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | ARI 15 @ SF 16 | SF | SF -1.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | SF 24 @ ARI 47 | ARI | ARI -4.5 |
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | ARI 24 @ SF 23 | ARI | SF -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away