ARITB
Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 6,990 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Buccaneers about 1.5 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,010 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 31st in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.20).
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 29th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -6.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.6 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · TB n/a | ARI 30% · TB 70% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +232 · TB -232 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 27, ARI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 10 and TB by 24.
Side by side
| ARI | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | ARI 17 @ TB 20 | TB | TB -4.5 |
| 2022-12-25 | 2022 Wk 16 | TB 19 @ ARI 16 | TB | TB -7.5 |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 10 | ARI 27 @ TB 30 | TB | TB -5.5 |
| 2017-10-15 | 2017 Wk 6 | TB 33 @ ARI 38 | ARI | TB -2.5 |
| 2016-09-18 | 2016 Wk 2 | TB 7 @ ARI 40 | ARI | ARI -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away