TBARI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Cardinals -12.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Cardinals 30th (-9.4).
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 6,290 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Buccaneers about 1.6 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 3,710 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Buccaneers cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cardinals rank 10th (5.0%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -3.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.6 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · ARI n/a | TB 63% · ARI 37% |
| Fair moneyline | TB -170 · ARI +170 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 22, TB 24.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 20 and ARI by 13.
Side by side
| TB | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | ARI 17 @ TB 20 | TB | TB -4.5 |
| 2022-12-25 | 2022 Wk 16 | TB 19 @ ARI 16 | TB | TB -7.5 |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 10 | ARI 27 @ TB 30 | TB | TB -5.5 |
| 2017-10-15 | 2017 Wk 6 | TB 33 @ ARI 38 | ARI | TB -2.5 |
| 2016-09-18 | 2016 Wk 2 | TB 7 @ ARI 40 | ARI | ARI -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away