ARITEN
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ARIArizona Cardinals
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cardinals can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cardinals about 1.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Cardinals win 5,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Titans 21st (-0.4).
- Strength: Cardinals rank 10th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (5.0%).
- Relative strength: Cardinals rank 12th in field goal percentage (89.5%).
Disadvantages Why the Cardinals may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 4,950 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cardinals lose by 17 or more.
- Weak spot: Cardinals rank 32nd in points allowed per game (29.7).
- Weak spot: Cardinals rank 30th in point differential per game (-9.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TEN -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · TEN n/a | ARI 50% · TEN 50% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI -102 · TEN +102 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 23, ARI 23.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 17 and TEN by 17.
Side by side
| ARI | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-6 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | TEN 22 @ ARI 21 | TEN | ARI -7.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | ARI 38 @ TEN 13 | ARI | TEN -2.5 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | TEN 7 @ ARI 12 | ARI | TEN -2.5 |
| 2013-12-15 | 2013 Wk 15 | ARI 37 @ TEN 34 | ARI | ARI -3 |
| 2009-11-29 | 2009 Wk 12 | ARI 17 @ TEN 20 | TEN | TEN -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away