TENARI
Tennessee Titans @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ARIArizona Cardinals
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cardinals can win
- Simulation: Cardinals win 5,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cardinals about 1.4 points stronger.
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Cardinals rank 13th (+0.3), Titans 21st (-0.4).
- Strength: Cardinals rank 10th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (5.0%).
Disadvantages Why the Cardinals may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 4,110 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cardinals lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Cardinals rank 32nd in points allowed per game (29.7).
- Weak spot: Cardinals rank 30th in point differential per game (-9.4).
- Weak spot: Cardinals rank 30th in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (+0.26).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ARI -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · ARI n/a | TEN 41% · ARI 59% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +144 · ARI -144 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 24, TEN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 14 and ARI by 20.
Side by side
| TEN | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 2-5 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | TEN 22 @ ARI 21 | TEN | ARI -7.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | ARI 38 @ TEN 13 | ARI | TEN -2.5 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | TEN 7 @ ARI 12 | ARI | TEN -2.5 |
| 2013-12-15 | 2013 Wk 15 | ARI 37 @ TEN 34 | ARI | ARI -3 |
| 2009-11-29 | 2009 Wk 12 | ARI 17 @ TEN 20 | TEN | TEN -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away