ARIWAS
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Commanders
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Commanders can win
- Simulation: Commanders win 5,850 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Commanders passing game (19th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Cardinals cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Cardinals 13th (+0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Commanders may not
- Upset odds: Cardinals win 4,150 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Commanders lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Commanders rank 32nd in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.05).
- Weak spot: Commanders rank 31st in points allowed per game (28.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.4 |
| Win chance | ARI n/a · WAS n/a | ARI 42% · WAS 58% |
| Fair moneyline | ARI +141 · WAS -141 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 26, ARI 23.
- 80% of simulations land between ARI by 14 and WAS by 20.
Side by side
| ARI | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 20.3 26 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 29.7 32 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.04 22 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.10 28 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +0.3 13 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 6.5% 17 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | WAS 42 @ ARI 14 | WAS | ARI -3.5 |
| 2023-09-10 | 2023 Wk 1 | ARI 16 @ WAS 20 | WAS | WAS -7 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | WAS 15 @ ARI 30 | ARI | ARI -7.5 |
| 2018-09-09 | 2018 Wk 1 | WAS 24 @ ARI 6 | WAS | ARI -2 |
| 2017-12-17 | 2017 Wk 15 | ARI 15 @ WAS 20 | WAS | WAS -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away