WASARI
Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals
Any-day matchup, Cardinals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ARIArizona Cardinals
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cardinals can win
- Cardinals running game (17th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Home field: Cardinals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Cardinals win 5,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Commanders cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Strength: Cardinals rank 10th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (5.0%).
Disadvantages Why the Cardinals may not
- Upset odds: Commanders win 4,970 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Commanders passing game (19th in EPA) faces the Cardinals defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Cardinals 13th (+0.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Commanders in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Commanders rank 16th (3.7), Cardinals 29th (2.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ARI -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.4 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · ARI n/a | WAS 50% · ARI 50% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +101 · ARI -101 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ARI 24, WAS 24.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 17 and ARI by 17.
Side by side
| WAS | ARI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 20.3 26 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 29.7 32 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 22 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.10 28 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | +0.3 13 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 6.5% 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | WAS 42 @ ARI 14 | WAS | ARI -3.5 |
| 2023-09-10 | 2023 Wk 1 | ARI 16 @ WAS 20 | WAS | WAS -7 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | WAS 15 @ ARI 30 | ARI | ARI -7.5 |
| 2018-09-09 | 2018 Wk 1 | WAS 24 @ ARI 6 | WAS | ARI -2 |
| 2017-12-17 | 2017 Wk 15 | ARI 15 @ WAS 20 | WAS | WAS -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away