ATLDAL
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 2.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 6,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Falcons 22nd (7.4%).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,640 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Cowboys 21st (3.1).
- Falcons passing game (25th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.7 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · DAL n/a | ATL 36% · DAL 64% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +175 · DAL -175 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 27, ATL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 12 and DAL by 21.
Side by side
| ATL | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | DAL 21 @ ATL 27 | ATL | ATL -3 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | ATL 3 @ DAL 43 | DAL | DAL -8 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | ATL 39 @ DAL 40 | DAL | DAL -3 |
| 2018-11-18 | 2018 Wk 11 | DAL 22 @ ATL 19 | DAL | ATL -3.5 |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 10 | DAL 7 @ ATL 27 | ATL | ATL -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away