DALATL
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 2.7 points stronger.
- Cowboys passing game (8th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 5,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Falcons 22nd (7.4%).
- Strength: Cowboys rank 1st in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (2.5%).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 4,640 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Cowboys 21st (3.1).
- Falcons passing game (25th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -0.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.7 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · ATL n/a | DAL 54% · ATL 46% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL -116 · ATL +116 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 24, DAL 26.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 18 and ATL by 16.
Side by side
| DAL | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | DAL 21 @ ATL 27 | ATL | ATL -3 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | ATL 3 @ DAL 43 | DAL | DAL -8 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | ATL 39 @ DAL 40 | DAL | DAL -3 |
| 2018-11-18 | 2018 Wk 11 | DAL 22 @ ATL 19 | DAL | ATL -3.5 |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 10 | DAL 7 @ ATL 27 | ATL | ATL -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away