ATLDET
Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 3.1 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Simulation: Lions win 6,560 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Falcons -2.0.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,440 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.7 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · DET n/a | ATL 34% · DET 66% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +191 · DET -191 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 28, ATL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 11 and DET by 22.
Side by side
| ATL | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | ATL 6 @ DET 20 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2021-12-26 | 2021 Wk 16 | DET 16 @ ATL 20 | ATL | ATL -7.5 |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Wk 7 | DET 23 @ ATL 22 | DET | ATL -1 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | ATL 30 @ DET 26 | ATL | ATL -3 |
| 2014-10-26 | 2014 Wk 8 | DET 22 @ ATL 21 | DET | DET -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away