DETATL
Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 3.2 points stronger.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Falcons -2.0.
- Simulation: Lions win 5,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Lions rank 9th (+3.2), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 4,140 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.7 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · ATL n/a | DET 59% · ATL 41% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -142 · ATL +142 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 24, DET 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 19 and ATL by 14.
Side by side
| DET | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | ATL 6 @ DET 20 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2021-12-26 | 2021 Wk 16 | DET 16 @ ATL 20 | ATL | ATL -7.5 |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Wk 7 | DET 23 @ ATL 22 | DET | ATL -1 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | ATL 30 @ DET 26 | ATL | ATL -3 |
| 2014-10-26 | 2014 Wk 8 | DET 22 @ ATL 21 | DET | DET -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away