ATLJAX
Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 3.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 7,070 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 2,930 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 9 or more.
- History: Falcons won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 24th in pass rush, sacks per dropback (4.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -6.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.8 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · JAX n/a | ATL 29% · JAX 71% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +241 · JAX -241 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 27, ATL 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 9 and JAX by 24.
Side by side
| ATL | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | ATL 7 @ JAX 23 | JAX | JAX -3.5 |
| 2021-11-28 | 2021 Wk 12 | ATL 21 @ JAX 14 | ATL | ATL -1.5 |
| 2019-12-22 | 2019 Wk 16 | JAX 12 @ ATL 24 | ATL | ATL -7.5 |
| 2015-12-20 | 2015 Wk 15 | ATL 23 @ JAX 17 | ATL | JAX -2 |
| 2011-12-15 | 2011 Wk 15 | JAX 14 @ ATL 41 | ATL | ATL -14 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away