JAXATL
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 3.2 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 6,340 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,660 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 13 or more.
- History: Falcons won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.8 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · ATL n/a | JAX 63% · ATL 37% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX -174 · ATL +174 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 22, JAX 26.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 21 and ATL by 13.
Side by side
| JAX | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | ATL 7 @ JAX 23 | JAX | JAX -3.5 |
| 2021-11-28 | 2021 Wk 12 | ATL 21 @ JAX 14 | ATL | ATL -1.5 |
| 2019-12-22 | 2019 Wk 16 | JAX 12 @ ATL 24 | ATL | ATL -7.5 |
| 2015-12-20 | 2015 Wk 15 | ATL 23 @ JAX 17 | ATL | JAX -2 |
| 2011-12-15 | 2011 Wk 15 | JAX 14 @ ATL 41 | ATL | ATL -14 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away