ATLLA
Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 4.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Falcons cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Upset odds: Falcons win 2,880 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Falcons rank 21st (-0.4), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Rams 17th (3.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 9 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -6.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.3 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · LA n/a | ATL 29% · LA 71% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +247 · LA -247 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 27, ATL 21.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 9 and LA by 24.
Side by side
| ATL | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | 2025 Wk 17 | LA 24 @ ATL 27 | ATL | LA -7.5 |
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | ATL 27 @ LA 31 | LA | LA -10.5 |
| 2019-10-20 | 2019 Wk 7 | LA 37 @ ATL 10 | LA | LA -3 |
| 2018-01-06 | 2017 Wild Card | ATL 26 @ LA 13 | ATL | LA -6.5 |
| 2016-12-11 | 2016 Wk 14 | ATL 42 @ LA 14 | ATL | ATL -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away