LAATL
Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 4.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 6,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Rams rank 5th (3.8%), Falcons 22nd (7.4%).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,730 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Travel: Rams cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Falcons rank 21st (-0.4), Rams 29th (-0.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.3 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · ATL n/a | LA 63% · ATL 37% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -168 · ATL +168 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 23, LA 27.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 20 and ATL by 13.
Side by side
| LA | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | 2025 Wk 17 | LA 24 @ ATL 27 | ATL | LA -7.5 |
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | ATL 27 @ LA 31 | LA | LA -10.5 |
| 2019-10-20 | 2019 Wk 7 | LA 37 @ ATL 10 | LA | LA -3 |
| 2018-01-06 | 2017 Wild Card | ATL 26 @ LA 13 | ATL | LA -6.5 |
| 2016-12-11 | 2016 Wk 14 | ATL 42 @ LA 14 | ATL | ATL -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away