ATLNE
Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Falcons -2.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 1.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Patriots win 6,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,580 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Falcons rank 21st (-0.4), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 11 or more.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.7 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · NE n/a | ATL 36% · NE 64% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +179 · NE -179 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 26, ATL 21.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 11 and NE by 21.
Side by side
| ATL | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | ATL 23 @ NE 24 | NE | NE -5.5 |
| 2021-11-18 | 2021 Wk 11 | NE 25 @ ATL 0 | NE | NE -7 |
| 2017-10-22 | 2017 Wk 7 | ATL 7 @ NE 23 | NE | NE -3 |
| 2017-02-05 | 2016 Super Bowl | NE 34 @ ATL 28 | NE | NE -3 |
| 2013-09-29 | 2013 Wk 4 | NE 30 @ ATL 23 | NE | ATL -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away