NEATL
New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Falcons -2.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 1.9 points stronger.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Falcons defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Simulation: Patriots win 5,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 4,400 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Falcons rank 21st (-0.4), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 14 or more.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.7 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · ATL n/a | NE 56% · ATL 44% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -127 · ATL +127 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 23, NE 24.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 18 and ATL by 14.
Side by side
| NE | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | ATL 23 @ NE 24 | NE | NE -5.5 |
| 2021-11-18 | 2021 Wk 11 | NE 25 @ ATL 0 | NE | NE -7 |
| 2017-10-22 | 2017 Wk 7 | ATL 7 @ NE 23 | NE | NE -3 |
| 2017-02-05 | 2016 Super Bowl | NE 34 @ ATL 28 | NE | NE -3 |
| 2013-09-29 | 2013 Wk 4 | NE 30 @ ATL 23 | NE | ATL -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away