ATLNO
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Saints 26th (2.9).
- Simulation: Falcons win 5,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Falcons rank 19th (-0.3), Saints 26th (-4.6).
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 4,790 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Falcons 22nd (5.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 16 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Falcons 19th (60.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 48 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · NO n/a | ATL 52% · NO 48% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -109 · NO +109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 24, ATL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 17 and NO by 16.
Side by side
| ATL | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 2026 Wk 4 | ATL 45 @ NO 24 | ATL | NO -1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | NO 17 @ ATL 19 | ATL | ATL -4.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | ATL 24 @ NO 10 | ATL | NO -1.5 |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | ATL 17 @ NO 20 | NO | ATL -3.5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | NO 24 @ ATL 26 | ATL | ATL -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away