NOATL
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Simulation: Falcons win 6,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Saints 26th (2.9).
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,860 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Saints rank 10th (7.3%), Falcons 22nd (5.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 13 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Falcons 19th (60.7).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Saints rank 13th (5.2%), Falcons 22nd (7.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 48 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · ATL n/a | NO 39% · ATL 61% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +159 · ATL -159 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 26, NO 22.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 13 and ATL by 20.
Side by side
| NO | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 2026 Wk 4 | ATL 45 @ NO 24 | ATL | NO -1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | NO 17 @ ATL 19 | ATL | ATL -4.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | ATL 24 @ NO 10 | ATL | NO -1.5 |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | ATL 17 @ NO 20 | NO | ATL -3.5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | NO 24 @ ATL 26 | ATL | ATL -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away