ATLPHI
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Falcons -2.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Eagles 31st (2.0).
- Point differential per game: Falcons rank 19th (-0.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 4,810 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 0.8 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 16 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Eagles rank 1st (100.0%), Falcons 20th (80.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.6 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · PHI n/a | ATL 52% · PHI 48% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -108 · PHI +108 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 23, ATL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 17 and PHI by 16.
Side by side
| ATL | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-16 | 2024 Wk 2 | ATL 22 @ PHI 21 | ATL | PHI -5.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | PHI 32 @ ATL 6 | PHI | ATL -3.5 |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 2 | PHI 20 @ ATL 24 | ATL | PHI -1 |
| 2018-09-06 | 2018 Wk 1 | ATL 12 @ PHI 18 | PHI | PHI -1 |
| 2018-01-13 | 2017 Divisional | ATL 10 @ PHI 15 | PHI | ATL -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away