PHIATL
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Simulation: Falcons win 6,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Falcons -2.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Eagles 31st (2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,900 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 0.9 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 13 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Eagles rank 1st (100.0%), Falcons 20th (80.0%).
- Weak spot: Falcons rank 25th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.07).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.6 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · ATL n/a | PHI 39% · ATL 61% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +157 · ATL -157 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 24, PHI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 13 and ATL by 20.
Side by side
| PHI | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-16 | 2024 Wk 2 | ATL 22 @ PHI 21 | ATL | PHI -5.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | PHI 32 @ ATL 6 | PHI | ATL -3.5 |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 2 | PHI 20 @ ATL 24 | ATL | PHI -1 |
| 2018-09-06 | 2018 Wk 1 | ATL 12 @ PHI 18 | PHI | PHI -1 |
| 2018-01-13 | 2017 Divisional | ATL 10 @ PHI 15 | PHI | ATL -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away